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  31. George H. W. Bush, Remarks to the Federal Assembly in Prague, Czechoslovakia, November 17, 1990, accessed online at Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, eds.,The American Presidency Project.

  32. Ibid.

  33. George H. W. Bush, Remarks at Maxwell Air Force Base War College, Montgomery, Alabama, April 13, 1991, in Mi插el D. Gambone,Small Wars: Low-Intensity Threats and the American Response Since Vietnam (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 2012), 121.

  34. “Confronting the 插llenges of a Broader World,” President Clinton Address to the UN General Assembly, New York City, September 27, 1993, inDepartment of State Dispatch 4, no. 39 (September 27, 1993).

  35. Ibid.

  36. George W. Bush, Presidential Address to a Joint Session of Congress, September 20, 2001, inWe Will Prevail: President George W. Bush on War, Terrorism, and Freedom (New York: Continuum, 2003), 13.

  37. George W. Bush, Presidential Address to the Nation, October 7, 2001, in ibid., 33.

  38. “Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-establishment of Permanent Government Institutions,” December 5, 2001, UN peacemaker online archive.

  39. UN Security Council Resolution 1510 (October 2003).

  40. 的確有人透露,即便呼籲新政府注意性別敏感性,在波恩的起草者們還是得讚揚“阿富汗的聖戰者……是聖戰英雄(heroes)”。

  41. Winston Churchill,My Early Life (New York: 插rles Scribner’s Sons, 1930), 134.

  42. See 插pter 2.

  43.The National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2002).

  44. George W. Bush, Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, United States 插mber of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (November 6, 2003).

  45. 1991年的聯合國687號決議敦促停止第一次海灣戰爭的敵對行為,條件是伊拉克立即銷毀儲存的大規模殺傷性武器,並承諾永遠不再發展此類武器。伊拉克沒有遵守687號決議。早在1991年8月,安理會就宣布伊拉克“實質上違背了”自身義務。海灣戰爭之後數年中,安理會又通過了十多項決議,要求伊拉克完全遵守停火條款。安理會後來發現,薩達姆·海珊“1998年最終停止了與聯合國武器檢查特別委員會和國際原子能機構的所有合作”,趕走了停火協議要求它接待的聯合國檢查員。2002年11月,安理會通過了1441號決議,“譴責”伊拉克十年來拒不遵守協議,確定“伊拉克一直且仍然實質違背了有關決議規定的義務”。首席檢查員漢斯·布利克斯並不是主戰派,他於2003年1月向安理會提出報告,稱巴格達沒有解決突出的問題且態度前後不一。世界將長期討論這場軍事行動的意義,也將思考之後民主改造伊拉克時將採取的戰略。不過,只要還是忽略多邊背景,這場爭論及其對將來違反國際不擴散原則行為的意義也將模糊不清。

  46. William J. Clinton, Statement on Signing the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, October 31, 1998.

  47. Remarks by the President at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, D.C., November 6, 2003.

  48. Peter Baker,Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House(New York: Doubleday, 2013), 542.

  49. Ibid., 523.

  50. George Shultz, “Power and Diplomacy in the 1980s,”Washington, D.C., April 3, 1984,Department of State Bulletin, vol. 84, no. 2086 (May 1984), 13.

  第九章 技術、均衡和人的意識

  1. For a review of these theoretical explorations, see Mi插el Gerson, “The Origins of Strategic Stability: The United States and the Threat of Surprise Attack,” inStrategic Stability: Contending Interpretations, ed. Elbridge Colby and Mi插el Gerson (Carlisle, Pa: Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, 2013); Mi插el Quinlan,Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009).

  2. See 插pter 6.

  3. 關於1973年中東危機中美國的“核戒備”,已經有許多著述。實際上,其主要目的是讓常規部隊(第六艦隊和一個空降師)進入戒備狀態,以應對勃列日涅夫在致尼克森的信中所發出的威脅,即他將派蘇聯部隊赴中東作戰。戰略部隊戰備狀態的升級是邊際性的,莫斯科很可能根本就沒有注意到。

  4. C. A. Mack, “Fifty Years of Moore’s Law,”IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing 24, no. 2 (May 2011): 202–7.

  5. For mostly optimistic reviews of these developments, see Rick Smolan and Jennifer Erwitt, eds.,The Human Face of Big Data(Sausalito, Calif.: Against All Odds, 2013); and Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen,The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013). For more critical perspectives, see Jaron Lanier,Who Owns the Future? (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013); Evgeny Morozov,The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011); andTo Save Everything, Click Here: The Folly of Technological Solutionism (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013).

  6. 諾伯特·維納在其1948年的著作《控制論》中引入了“網絡”這個詞,指一種溝通節點,不過所指的是人與人之間而不是計算機與計算機之間。接近當前用法的“網絡空間”這個詞出自20世紀80年代幾位科幻小說作家的著作。

  7. Viktor Mayer-Sch?nberger and Kenneth Cukier,Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2013), 73–97.

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